Elliott analysis of metals, oil and gas: dated series laboratory

Fix the instrument, dates and construction of the series

D1 means the provider’s daily bar, not a globally identical UTC day. Yahoo timestamps are converted using the supplied exchange timezone; quote OHLC is used without substituting adjusted close. ChartExchange’s date column is labelled UTC and retains its Sunday observations. Investing.com date labels are retained; its session construction was not independently established. Prices are rounded for these tables and calculations; extra decimals do not establish an exchange tick size. A provider close is not automatically an official settlement or an executable quote.

GC=F, SI=F, CL=F, BZ=F and NG=F are provider futures series. Their historical roll and back-adjustment construction was not independently audited; the 2026 contract name does not identify every 2020 bar’s expiry. Resolve expiry and roll before a contract-level claim. XAUUSD/XAGUSD use a separate OTC provider table: neither its bid/ask construction nor its volume represents a verified centralized exchange feed. Volume is omitted. The historical and current cases use the same source convention for each symbol.

• Waveopedia: structural rules

What the historical test and current branches establish

For each new historical case, take six consecutive published bars: the first six available from 16 March 2020 for Yahoo, or the six observations ending 16 October 2026 for the shorter spot/IMOEX extracts. Test p0=L0, p1=H1, p2=L2, p3=H3, p4=L4, p5=H5 as a deliberately mechanical upward candidate. These are real bar extremes, not confirmed swing endpoints. Check retracement direction, p2>p0, p3>p1, strict ordinary-impulse non-overlap p4>p1 and wave-3 length. Compare both arithmetic and percentage moves. Waveopedia discusses rare futures overlap qualifications; this exercise uses the stated strict screen and does not turn an overlap into a proven diagonal.

Six bars never establish the required internal 5–3–5–3–5, larger-degree context or intrabar ordering. All newly tested mechanical candidates fail at least one screen; rejecting them leaves the wider count unresolved. For the frozen 25 October review, H5/L5 are the maximum high/minimum low of the last five available bars. Observe the next five completed bars from the same provider: a close above H5 prompts review of continuation versus a corrective rally; a close below L5 prompts review of a deeper correction or a different count. Record both if both occur, in observed order; no event means unresolved at the deadline. These are authored review conditions, not wave invalidation levels, trade entries, targets or estimated probabilities. This dated page does not update automatically.

• Waveopedia: structural rules
• Waveopedia: structural rules

Gold futures: real historical observations and a rejected candidate

The gold example uses the provider futures symbol GC=F, not XAUUSD or a gold ETF. Source: Yahoo Finance, GC=F, D1, USD per troy ounce; 2020-03-16–2020-03-23. Daily dates use America/New_York. The archive is a provider futures/index series, not a separately verified exchange record. The table tests the stated L,H,L,H,L,H candidate retrospectively; it is not a forecast issued on those dates.

For the candidate points, L1, L3, L5 = 85.60, 14.30, 83.50; the corresponding percentage moves are 5.8949%, 0.9680%, 5.6286%. Failed checks: p3 does not exceed p1; p4 is not above p1 under the strict non-overlap screen; wave 3 is shortest on the arithmetic comparison; wave 3 is shortest on the percentage comparison. Reject this specific ordinary upward candidate. Replacing its labels with a diagonal is unsupported without the diagonal’s own structure. The wider wave count remains unresolved; a Fibonacci match cannot repair these failures.

• Dated provider OHLC source
• Instrument description / source identity
• Waveopedia: structural rules

Gold futures: snapshot on 25 October 2026 and conditional forecast review

The gold example uses the provider futures symbol GC=F, not XAUUSD or a gold ETF. As of 2026-10-25, the last available daily observation in Yahoo Finance GC=F is 2026-10-23, not a new Sunday quote. D1, USD per troy ounce. Last close 4007.90, previous close 4060.40, change -52.50. Dates follow America/New_York. These are quote OHLC, not verified official settlements; historical expiry/roll mechanics remain unverified.

The five-bar window gives H5=4211.20, L5=3989.10, width 222.10. During the next five completed provider bars, a close >4211.20 triggers continuation-versus-corrective-rally review; a close <3989.10 triggers deeper-correction/recount review. Inside the range, no branch is resolved. A range break alone supplies no confirmed wave-3/5 or A/B/C label. The protocol above governs order, deadline and the possibility of both events; no price target or trading signal is asserted.

• Dated provider OHLC source
• Instrument description / source identity

XAUUSD: real historical observations and a rejected candidate

XAUUSD is this provider’s OTC gold/dollar quotation; it is not the COMEX GC contract or a universal executable spot price. Source: ChartExchange, XAUUSD, D1, USD per ounce as quoted by the provider; 2026-10-11–2026-10-16. The shorter extract ends before the current snapshot. Provider date labels are retained; the published OHLC is not independently verified exchange data. The table tests the stated L,H,L,H,L,H candidate retrospectively; it is not a forecast issued on those dates.

For the candidate points, L1, L3, L5 = 32.3600, 23.5200, 87.5100; the corresponding percentage moves are 0.7733%, 0.5672%, 2.1286%. Failed checks: p2 is not above p0; p3 does not exceed p1; p4 is not above p1 under the strict non-overlap screen; wave 3 is shortest on the arithmetic comparison; wave 3 is shortest on the percentage comparison. Reject this specific ordinary upward candidate. Replacing its labels with a diagonal is unsupported without the diagonal’s own structure. The wider wave count remains unresolved; a Fibonacci match cannot repair these failures.

• Dated provider OHLC source
• Instrument description / source identity
• Waveopedia: structural rules

XAUUSD: snapshot on 25 October 2026 and conditional forecast review

XAUUSD is this provider’s OTC gold/dollar quotation; it is not the COMEX GC contract or a universal executable spot price. As of 2026-10-25, the last available daily observation in ChartExchange XAUUSD is 2026-10-23, not a new Sunday quote. D1, USD per ounce as quoted by the provider. Last close 3994.7700, previous close 4023.3900, change -28.6200. The table uses ChartExchange’s UTC-labelled dates and feed-bound OTC quotation. Bid/ask and session mechanics are not independently established; volume is omitted.

The five-bar window gives H5=4190.1700, L5=3975.5200, width 214.6500. During the next five completed provider bars, a close >4190.1700 triggers continuation-versus-corrective-rally review; a close <3975.5200 triggers deeper-correction/recount review. Inside the range, no branch is resolved. A range break alone supplies no confirmed wave-3/5 or A/B/C label. The protocol above governs order, deadline and the possibility of both events; no price target or trading signal is asserted.

• Dated provider OHLC source
• Instrument description / source identity

Silver futures: real historical observations and a rejected candidate

The silver example uses the provider futures symbol SI=F, not XAGUSD or a silver ETF. Source: Yahoo Finance, SI=F, D1, USD per troy ounce; 2020-03-16–2020-03-23. Daily dates use America/New_York. The archive is a provider futures/index series, not a separately verified exchange record. The table tests the stated L,H,L,H,L,H candidate retrospectively; it is not a forecast issued on those dates.

For the candidate points, L1, L3, L5 = 0.860, 0.470, 1.145; the corresponding percentage moves are 7.2574%, 4.0051%, 9.4785%. Failed checks: p2 is not above p0; p3 does not exceed p1; p4 is not above p1 under the strict non-overlap screen; wave 3 is shortest on the arithmetic comparison; wave 3 is shortest on the percentage comparison. Reject this specific ordinary upward candidate. Replacing its labels with a diagonal is unsupported without the diagonal’s own structure. The wider wave count remains unresolved; a Fibonacci match cannot repair these failures.

• Dated provider OHLC source
• Instrument description / source identity
• Waveopedia: structural rules

Silver futures: snapshot on 25 October 2026 and conditional forecast review

The silver example uses the provider futures symbol SI=F, not XAGUSD or a silver ETF. As of 2026-10-25, the last available daily observation in Yahoo Finance SI=F is 2026-10-23, not a new Sunday quote. D1, USD per troy ounce. Last close 53.949, previous close 54.764, change -0.815. Dates follow America/New_York. These are quote OHLC, not verified official settlements; historical expiry/roll mechanics remain unverified.

The five-bar window gives H5=57.706, L5=53.075, width 4.631. During the next five completed provider bars, a close >57.706 triggers continuation-versus-corrective-rally review; a close <53.075 triggers deeper-correction/recount review. Inside the range, no branch is resolved. A range break alone supplies no confirmed wave-3/5 or A/B/C label. The protocol above governs order, deadline and the possibility of both events; no price target or trading signal is asserted.

• Dated provider OHLC source
• Instrument description / source identity

XAGUSD: real historical observations and a rejected candidate

XAGUSD is this provider’s OTC silver/dollar quotation; it is not the COMEX SI contract or every broker’s CFD. Source: ChartExchange, XAGUSD, D1, USD per ounce as quoted by the provider; 2026-10-11–2026-10-16. The shorter extract ends before the current snapshot. Provider date labels are retained; the published OHLC is not independently verified exchange data. The table tests the stated L,H,L,H,L,H candidate retrospectively; it is not a forecast issued on those dates.

For the candidate points, L1, L3, L5 = 0.6830, 0.4720, 2.2970; the corresponding percentage moves are 1.1241%, 0.8015%, 4.1255%. Failed checks: p2 is not above p0; p3 does not exceed p1; p4 is not above p1 under the strict non-overlap screen; wave 3 is shortest on the arithmetic comparison; wave 3 is shortest on the percentage comparison. Reject this specific ordinary upward candidate. Replacing its labels with a diagonal is unsupported without the diagonal’s own structure. The wider wave count remains unresolved; a Fibonacci match cannot repair these failures.

• Dated provider OHLC source
• Instrument description / source identity
• Waveopedia: structural rules

XAGUSD: snapshot on 25 October 2026 and conditional forecast review

XAGUSD is this provider’s OTC silver/dollar quotation; it is not the COMEX SI contract or every broker’s CFD. As of 2026-10-25, the last available daily observation in ChartExchange XAGUSD is 2026-10-23, not a new Sunday quote. D1, USD per ounce as quoted by the provider. Last close 53.8492, previous close 54.5682, change -0.7190. The table uses ChartExchange’s UTC-labelled dates and feed-bound OTC quotation. Bid/ask and session mechanics are not independently established; volume is omitted.

The five-bar window gives H5=58.5972, L5=53.0152, width 5.5820. During the next five completed provider bars, a close >58.5972 triggers continuation-versus-corrective-rally review; a close <53.0152 triggers deeper-correction/recount review. Inside the range, no branch is resolved. A range break alone supplies no confirmed wave-3/5 or A/B/C label. The protocol above governs order, deadline and the possibility of both events; no price target or trading signal is asserted.

• Dated provider OHLC source
• Instrument description / source identity

WTI crude oil: real historical observations and a rejected candidate

CL=F refers to NYMEX WTI futures, not Brent or a broker’s USOIL cash CFD. Source: Yahoo Finance, CL=F, D1, USD per barrel; 2020-03-16–2020-03-23. Daily dates use America/New_York. The archive is a provider futures/index series, not a separately verified exchange record. The table tests the stated L,H,L,H,L,H candidate retrospectively; it is not a forecast issued on those dates.

For the candidate points, L1, L3, L5 = 2.20, 7.65, 4.61; the corresponding percentage moves are 7.8292%, 38.1356%, 23.6896%. Failed checks: p2 is not above p0; p3 does not exceed p1; p4 is not above p1 under the strict non-overlap screen. Reject this specific ordinary upward candidate. Replacing its labels with a diagonal is unsupported without the diagonal’s own structure. The wider wave count remains unresolved; a Fibonacci match cannot repair these failures.

• Dated provider OHLC source
• Instrument description / source identity
• Waveopedia: structural rules

WTI crude oil: snapshot on 25 October 2026 and conditional forecast review

CL=F refers to NYMEX WTI futures, not Brent or a broker’s USOIL cash CFD. As of 2026-10-25, the last available daily observation in Yahoo Finance CL=F is 2026-10-23, not a new Sunday quote. D1, USD per barrel. Last close 103.27, previous close 99.47, change 3.80. Dates follow America/New_York. These are quote OHLC, not verified official settlements; historical expiry/roll mechanics remain unverified.

The five-bar window gives H5=110.48, L5=96.26, width 14.22. During the next five completed provider bars, a close >110.48 triggers continuation-versus-corrective-rally review; a close <96.26 triggers deeper-correction/recount review. Inside the range, no branch is resolved. A range break alone supplies no confirmed wave-3/5 or A/B/C label. The protocol above governs order, deadline and the possibility of both events; no price target or trading signal is asserted.

• Dated provider OHLC source
• Instrument description / source identity

Brent crude oil: real historical observations and a rejected candidate

BZ=F is NYMEX Brent Last Day Financial futures; it is not the ICE Brent BRN contract or a generic UKOIL CFD. Source: Yahoo Finance, BZ=F, D1, USD per barrel; 2020-03-16–2020-03-23. Daily dates use America/New_York. The archive is a provider futures/index series, not a separately verified exchange record. The table tests the stated L,H,L,H,L,H candidate retrospectively; it is not a forecast issued on those dates.

For the candidate points, L1, L3, L5 = 1.88, 4.87, 0.73; the corresponding percentage moves are 6.4076%, 19.8694%, 2.7249%. Failed checks: p2 is not above p0; p3 does not exceed p1; p4 is not above p1 under the strict non-overlap screen. Reject this specific ordinary upward candidate. Replacing its labels with a diagonal is unsupported without the diagonal’s own structure. The wider wave count remains unresolved; a Fibonacci match cannot repair these failures.

• Dated provider OHLC source
• Instrument description / source identity
• Waveopedia: structural rules

Brent crude oil: snapshot on 25 October 2026 and conditional forecast review

BZ=F is NYMEX Brent Last Day Financial futures; it is not the ICE Brent BRN contract or a generic UKOIL CFD. As of 2026-10-25, the last available daily observation in Yahoo Finance BZ=F is 2026-10-23, not a new Sunday quote. D1, USD per barrel. Last close 111.70, previous close 113.17, change -1.47. Dates follow America/New_York. These are quote OHLC, not verified official settlements; historical expiry/roll mechanics remain unverified.

The five-bar window gives H5=113.49, L5=105.95, width 7.54. During the next five completed provider bars, a close >113.49 triggers continuation-versus-corrective-rally review; a close <105.95 triggers deeper-correction/recount review. Inside the range, no branch is resolved. A range break alone supplies no confirmed wave-3/5 or A/B/C label. The protocol above governs order, deadline and the possibility of both events; no price target or trading signal is asserted.

• Dated provider OHLC source
• Instrument description / source identity

Natural gas: real historical observations and a rejected candidate

NG=F refers to Henry Hub natural-gas futures; it is not European TTF gas or an LNG cargo assessment. Source: Yahoo Finance, NG=F, D1, USD per MMBtu; 2020-03-16–2020-03-23. Daily dates use America/New_York. The archive is a provider futures/index series, not a separately verified exchange record. The table tests the stated L,H,L,H,L,H candidate retrospectively; it is not a forecast issued on those dates.

For the candidate points, L1, L3, L5 = 0.042, 0.128, 0.054; the corresponding percentage moves are 2.3622%, 8.2315%, 3.4308%. Failed checks: p2 is not above p0; p3 does not exceed p1; p4 is not above p1 under the strict non-overlap screen. Reject this specific ordinary upward candidate. Replacing its labels with a diagonal is unsupported without the diagonal’s own structure. The wider wave count remains unresolved; a Fibonacci match cannot repair these failures.

• Dated provider OHLC source
• Instrument description / source identity
• Waveopedia: structural rules

Natural gas: snapshot on 25 October 2026 and conditional forecast review

NG=F refers to Henry Hub natural-gas futures; it is not European TTF gas or an LNG cargo assessment. As of 2026-10-25, the last available daily observation in Yahoo Finance NG=F is 2026-10-23, not a new Sunday quote. D1, USD per MMBtu. Last close 3.050, previous close 2.796, change 0.254. Dates follow America/New_York. These are quote OHLC, not verified official settlements; historical expiry/roll mechanics remain unverified.

The five-bar window gives H5=3.184, L5=2.726, width 0.458. During the next five completed provider bars, a close >3.184 triggers continuation-versus-corrective-rally review; a close <2.726 triggers deeper-correction/recount review. Inside the range, no branch is resolved. A range break alone supplies no confirmed wave-3/5 or A/B/C label. The protocol above governs order, deadline and the possibility of both events; no price target or trading signal is asserted.

• Dated provider OHLC source
• Instrument description / source identity

Sources and limits

• Waveopedia: structural rules