Forex and DXY: dated sources before wave labels

Forex: reference series, availability and the dated snapshot

Our source is the ECB’s daily euro reference-rate dataset, not broker OHLC, a bid/ask feed or an executable fixing. Rates are quoted as currency units per EUR. For A/B, calculate (B per EUR)/(A per EUR), with EUR per EUR=1. Cross-ratios are rounded to six decimals for this exercise; this is computational precision, not a market tick-size claim. The ECB publishes these rates for information and discourages transaction use.

The historical selection uses the first six alternating strict one-neighbour extrema in the March–May 2023 reference series. A local point needs the next published observation to qualify; the table gives that later date, not an invented intraday confirmation time. P0–P5 are candidate endpoints, with d=+1 for an upward candidate and d=−1 for downward. Check d×(P2−P0)>0, L3≥min(L1,L5) and d×(P4−P1)>0, where moving lengths are measured in the proposed direction. These necessary sampled-point checks do not establish 5–3–5–3–5 or replace source OHLC.

The 25 October 2026 snapshot was retrieved around 10:54:59 UTC. Its latest ECB observation is 23 October; no Sunday reference rate or Sunday broker quote is invented. Freeze U/D as the maximum/minimum of the latest five published observations and inspect the next three new publications. Above U/below D are chosen range events, not orders, promised direction or complete wave invalidation. Record both events if they occur, or expiry if neither does. Rebuild from the chosen broker’s own price basis and session before considering that separate source.

• ECB · reference-rate definition and use limits
• Actual historical source data
• Actual source response for 25 October 2026 snapshot
• Elliott Wave International · impulse rules

EURUSD: real reference observations and a bounded scenario

For EURUSD, the unit is USD per EUR. The 23 October 2026 reference-based value is 1.1193/1=1.119300, using the ECB’s common EUR basis. This is a calculated reference ratio, not the price or session close of an unspecified EURUSD broker. Keep base/quote order unchanged; reversing a quote requires recomputation, not merely reversing an arrow.

The dated 2023 table supplies a rising six-point reference candidate, with moving lengths L1=0.006000, L3=0.019200, L5=0.033000. Result: the origin test fails: d×(P2−P0)=-0.006000≤0; the non-overlap test fails: d×(P4−P1)=-0.011600≤0. The sixth local point requires data through 2023-03-24; a backdated marker on the point’s own date is not proof of earlier availability. These results concern the chosen reference curve. They do not confirm another broker’s intraday structure or identify a unique larger-degree role.

For the fixed 25 October 2026 review, compare future published values with U=1.123400 and D=1.119300, the last-five reference range known from 23 October. During the next three new reference observations, value>U or value<D records only the chosen event. Structure remains unresolved. A reference series cannot show an intrabar stop/target sequence, spread, actual fill or a valid impulse merely because its next value crosses a boundary.

• ECB · reference-rate definition and use limits
• Actual historical source data
• Actual source response for 25 October 2026 snapshot
• Elliott Wave International · impulse rules

GBPUSD: real reference observations and a bounded scenario

For GBPUSD, the unit is USD per GBP. The 23 October 2026 reference-based value is 1.1193/0.83728=1.336829, using the ECB’s common EUR basis. This is a calculated reference ratio, not the price or session close of an unspecified GBPUSD broker. Keep base/quote order unchanged; reversing a quote requires recomputation, not merely reversing an arrow.

The dated 2023 table supplies a rising six-point reference candidate, with moving lengths L1=0.006714, L3=0.035518, L5=0.022501. Result: the origin test fails: d×(P2−P0)=-0.010612≤0. The sixth local point requires data through 2023-03-24; a backdated marker on the point’s own date is not proof of earlier availability. These results concern the chosen reference curve. They do not confirm another broker’s intraday structure or identify a unique larger-degree role.

For the fixed 25 October 2026 review, compare future published values with U=1.340173 and D=1.333056, the last-five reference range known from 23 October. During the next three new reference observations, value>U or value<D records only the chosen event. Structure remains unresolved. A reference series cannot show an intrabar stop/target sequence, spread, actual fill or a valid impulse merely because its next value crosses a boundary.

• ECB · reference-rate definition and use limits
• Actual historical source data
• Actual source response for 25 October 2026 snapshot
• Elliott Wave International · impulse rules

USDJPY: real reference observations and a bounded scenario

For USDJPY, the unit is JPY per USD. The 23 October 2026 reference-based value is 175.51/1.1193=156.803359, using the ECB’s common EUR basis. This is a calculated reference ratio, not the price or session close of an unspecified USDJPY broker. Keep base/quote order unchanged; reversing a quote requires recomputation, not merely reversing an arrow.

The dated 2023 table supplies a falling six-point reference candidate, with moving lengths L1=0.930730, L3=0.950824, L5=4.091425. Result: the origin test fails: d×(P2−P0)=-0.427467≤0; the non-overlap test fails: d×(P4−P1)=-0.826733≤0. The sixth local point requires data through 2023-03-14; a backdated marker on the point’s own date is not proof of earlier availability. These results concern the chosen reference curve. They do not confirm another broker’s intraday structure or identify a unique larger-degree role.

For the fixed 25 October 2026 review, compare future published values with U=158.244989 and D=156.803359, the last-five reference range known from 23 October. During the next three new reference observations, value>U or value<D records only the chosen event. Structure remains unresolved. A reference series cannot show an intrabar stop/target sequence, spread, actual fill or a valid impulse merely because its next value crosses a boundary.

• ECB · reference-rate definition and use limits
• Actual historical source data
• Actual source response for 25 October 2026 snapshot
• Elliott Wave International · impulse rules

AUDUSD: real reference observations and a bounded scenario

For AUDUSD, the unit is USD per AUD. The 23 October 2026 reference-based value is 1.1193/1.5939=0.702240, using the ECB’s common EUR basis. This is a calculated reference ratio, not the price or session close of an unspecified AUDUSD broker. Keep base/quote order unchanged; reversing a quote requires recomputation, not merely reversing an arrow.

The dated 2023 table supplies a rising six-point reference candidate, with moving lengths L1=0.002560, L3=0.001101, L5=0.009900. Result: the origin test fails: d×(P2−P0)=-0.012381≤0; wave 3 is shortest: L3=0.001101<min(L1=0.002560,L5=0.009900); the non-overlap test fails: d×(P4−P1)=-0.015922≤0. The sixth local point requires data through 2023-03-15; a backdated marker on the point’s own date is not proof of earlier availability. These results concern the chosen reference curve. They do not confirm another broker’s intraday structure or identify a unique larger-degree role.

For the fixed 25 October 2026 review, compare future published values with U=0.703400 and D=0.698493, the last-five reference range known from 23 October. During the next three new reference observations, value>U or value<D records only the chosen event. Structure remains unresolved. A reference series cannot show an intrabar stop/target sequence, spread, actual fill or a valid impulse merely because its next value crosses a boundary.

• ECB · reference-rate definition and use limits
• Actual historical source data
• Actual source response for 25 October 2026 snapshot
• Elliott Wave International · impulse rules

USDCAD: real reference observations and a bounded scenario

For USDCAD, the unit is CAD per USD. The 23 October 2026 reference-based value is 1.5665/1.1193=1.399535, using the ECB’s common EUR basis. This is a calculated reference ratio, not the price or session close of an unspecified USDCAD broker. Keep base/quote order unchanged; reversing a quote requires recomputation, not merely reversing an arrow.

The dated 2023 table supplies a falling six-point reference candidate, with moving lengths L1=0.002319, L3=0.015169, L5=0.008362. Result: the origin test fails: d×(P2−P0)=-0.020866≤0; the non-overlap test fails: d×(P4−P1)=-0.014860≤0. The sixth local point requires data through 2023-03-22; a backdated marker on the point’s own date is not proof of earlier availability. These results concern the chosen reference curve. They do not confirm another broker’s intraday structure or identify a unique larger-degree role.

For the fixed 25 October 2026 review, compare future published values with U=1.407394 and D=1.399535, the last-five reference range known from 23 October. During the next three new reference observations, value>U or value<D records only the chosen event. Structure remains unresolved. A reference series cannot show an intrabar stop/target sequence, spread, actual fill or a valid impulse merely because its next value crosses a boundary.

• ECB · reference-rate definition and use limits
• Actual historical source data
• Actual source response for 25 October 2026 snapshot
• Elliott Wave International · impulse rules

USDCHF: real reference observations and a bounded scenario

For USDCHF, the unit is CHF per USD. The 23 October 2026 reference-based value is 0.9227/1.1193=0.824355, using the ECB’s common EUR basis. This is a calculated reference ratio, not the price or session close of an unspecified USDCHF broker. Keep base/quote order unchanged; reversing a quote requires recomputation, not merely reversing an arrow.

The dated 2023 table supplies a falling six-point reference candidate, with moving lengths L1=0.008018, L3=0.031069, L5=0.011633. Result: all three sampled-point checks pass, but subdivisions and true intraday extremes are not established. The sixth local point requires data through 2023-03-24; a backdated marker on the point’s own date is not proof of earlier availability. These results concern the chosen reference curve. They do not confirm another broker’s intraday structure or identify a unique larger-degree role.

For the fixed 25 October 2026 review, compare future published values with U=0.825033 and D=0.822044, the last-five reference range known from 23 October. During the next three new reference observations, value>U or value<D records only the chosen event. Structure remains unresolved. A reference series cannot show an intrabar stop/target sequence, spread, actual fill or a valid impulse merely because its next value crosses a boundary.

• ECB · reference-rate definition and use limits
• Actual historical source data
• Actual source response for 25 October 2026 snapshot
• Elliott Wave International · impulse rules

NZDUSD: real reference observations and a bounded scenario

For NZDUSD, the unit is USD per NZD. The 23 October 2026 reference-based value is 1.1193/1.9682=0.568692, using the ECB’s common EUR basis. This is a calculated reference ratio, not the price or session close of an unspecified NZDUSD broker. Keep base/quote order unchanged; reversing a quote requires recomputation, not merely reversing an arrow.

The dated 2023 table supplies a rising six-point reference candidate, with moving lengths L1=0.000149, L3=0.000877, L5=0.012126. Result: the origin test fails: d×(P2−P0)=-0.010151≤0; the non-overlap test fails: d×(P4−P1)=-0.009697≤0. The sixth local point requires data through 2023-03-15; a backdated marker on the point’s own date is not proof of earlier availability. These results concern the chosen reference curve. They do not confirm another broker’s intraday structure or identify a unique larger-degree role.

For the fixed 25 October 2026 review, compare future published values with U=0.569242 and D=0.567148, the last-five reference range known from 23 October. During the next three new reference observations, value>U or value<D records only the chosen event. Structure remains unresolved. A reference series cannot show an intrabar stop/target sequence, spread, actual fill or a valid impulse merely because its next value crosses a boundary.

• ECB · reference-rate definition and use limits
• Actual historical source data
• Actual source response for 25 October 2026 snapshot
• Elliott Wave International · impulse rules

EURJPY: real reference observations and a bounded scenario

For EURJPY, the unit is JPY per EUR. The 23 October 2026 reference-based value is 175.51/1=175.510000, using the ECB’s common EUR basis. This is a calculated reference ratio, not the price or session close of an unspecified EURJPY broker. Keep base/quote order unchanged; reversing a quote requires recomputation, not merely reversing an arrow.

The dated 2023 table supplies a falling six-point reference candidate, with moving lengths L1=0.520000, L3=1.390000, L5=2.740000. Result: the origin test fails: d×(P2−P0)=-0.140000≤0; the non-overlap test fails: d×(P4−P1)=-0.150000≤0. The sixth local point requires data through 2023-03-14; a backdated marker on the point’s own date is not proof of earlier availability. These results concern the chosen reference curve. They do not confirm another broker’s intraday structure or identify a unique larger-degree role.

For the fixed 25 October 2026 review, compare future published values with U=177.630000 and D=175.510000, the last-five reference range known from 23 October. During the next three new reference observations, value>U or value<D records only the chosen event. Structure remains unresolved. A reference series cannot show an intrabar stop/target sequence, spread, actual fill or a valid impulse merely because its next value crosses a boundary.

• ECB · reference-rate definition and use limits
• Actual historical source data
• Actual source response for 25 October 2026 snapshot
• Elliott Wave International · impulse rules

GBPJPY: real reference observations and a bounded scenario

For GBPJPY, the unit is JPY per GBP. The 23 October 2026 reference-based value is 175.51/0.83728=209.619243, using the ECB’s common EUR basis. This is a calculated reference ratio, not the price or session close of an unspecified GBPJPY broker. Keep base/quote order unchanged; reversing a quote requires recomputation, not merely reversing an arrow.

The dated 2023 table supplies a rising six-point reference candidate, with moving lengths L1=0.020682, L3=2.017214, L5=2.995470. Result: the origin test fails: d×(P2−P0)=-1.261377≤0; the non-overlap test fails: d×(P4−P1)=-2.573236≤0. The sixth local point requires data through 2023-03-15; a backdated marker on the point’s own date is not proof of earlier availability. These results concern the chosen reference curve. They do not confirm another broker’s intraday structure or identify a unique larger-degree role.

For the fixed 25 October 2026 review, compare future published values with U=211.583656 and D=209.619243, the last-five reference range known from 23 October. During the next three new reference observations, value>U or value<D records only the chosen event. Structure remains unresolved. A reference series cannot show an intrabar stop/target sequence, spread, actual fill or a valid impulse merely because its next value crosses a boundary.

• ECB · reference-rate definition and use limits
• Actual historical source data
• Actual source response for 25 October 2026 snapshot
• Elliott Wave International · impulse rules

DXY: the index, actual history and a separate vendor snapshot

ICE describes DXY as a geometric six-currency index; the EUR weight is 57.60%. It is not EURUSD, a broad-dollar index with another basket, DX futures or a broker CFD. Holding the other components fixed, an assumed 1% rise in EURUSD implies a factor 1.01^(−0.576)≈0.994285 for DXY, about−0.5715%. This is our isolated arithmetic exercise, not an actual market prediction or proof that every USD pair must move together.

For a real historical example, ICE’s May 2024 article reports closing 89.32 on 6 January 2021, 114.24 on 27 September 2022 and 99.75 on 13 July 2023. The changes between these landmarks are+24.92 and−14.49 index points. Three dated landmarks do not determine five waves, subdivisions or the intervening extrema. Retain the historical question as unresolved rather than drawing missing waves from three values.

Separate dated snapshot: on 25 October 2026 around 10:54:59 UTC, the Yahoo data vendor returned DX-Y.NYB with instrument type INDEX. Its last nonempty daily observation was 23 October, close 101.81. The empty 25 October row is excluded. Using values rounded to two decimals as an explicit research convention, the latest-five range is D=101.61 to U=101.98. Compare the next three valid daily provider closes with those bounds; no actual future branch or wave structure is established. This vendor snapshot is not an ICE-certified live fixing, futures execution or interchangeable continuation of the three ICE historical landmarks.

• ICE · DXY definition and dated historical landmarks
• Yahoo · actual DX-Y.NYB daily vendor response
• Elliott Wave International · impulse rules

Sources and limits

• ECB · reference-rate definition and use limits
• ICE · DXY definition and dated historical landmarks
• Elliott Wave International · impulse rules