Elliott wave forecast: define a deadline and a failure condition
Make a forecast reviewable by fixing the observation period, price condition and invalidation before the next price bars arrive.
Published: (UTC+3)
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A statement that price may rise at some point is hard to evaluate. A useful research forecast identifies what is expected, over which observations, and what would wave interpretation against it. This exercise tests the wording of a forecast, not a live market opportunity.
Freeze the forecast record
Save the input file, final available timestamp, instrument and timeframe. Write the scenario before seeing later price bars. Keep the wave hypothesis separate from the event you will score, such as whether a specified price condition occurs within a fixed number of completed price bars.
Specify the observation window
In an invented test, the event is a close above 130 within the next 10 completed price bars. State whether touching 130 is sufficient, and whether intrabar highs wave interpretation. Here they do not: the event explicitly uses a close above 130. These definitions belong in the original record.
Keep invalidation separate
Record the structural condition that would reject the underlying hypothesis. It may occur before the forecast deadline. Decide beforehand how such a case is reported, rather than deleting it from the sample. An unresolved outcome also needs its own status and explanation.
Review without rewriting the original
After the window ends, add the observed price bars and the result under the original definition. Preserve any revised scenario as a new record. A correctly recorded event is still not evidence of a profitable strategy; execution, costs and a properly designed performance study are additional questions.
The tenth price bar has a high of 131 but closes at 129. Did the stated event occur?
No. The invented event required a close above 130 within the window. A high above the level does not satisfy that definition.