Rheinmetall, SAP, Novo Nordisk and LINK: dated Elliott checks
Real historical daily bars: price constraints, rejected impulse candidates, gaps and unresolved subdivisions for four specific instruments.
Published: (UTC+3)
Русский · English · Deutsch · Español · Français · Italiano · 繁體中文 · 日本語 · 한국어
This retrospective uses selected actual daily bars. It is not a current forecast for 25 October 2026. An outer price sequence can reject a proposed count; confirming a complete Elliott count also requires smaller subdivisions and the larger structural context.
Record the instrument, source and point selection first
RHM.DE and SAP.DE here mean Xetra shares quoted in EUR; NOVO-B.CO is the Copenhagen B share quoted in DKK. Do not mix US ADRs, other German venues or CFDs into these point sequences. Equity O/H/L and Close come from the linked Yahoo historical tables; the separate dividend-adjusted Adj Close column is not used. Equity dates are trading-session dates at the respective venue.
LINKUSDT is Bybit Spot, measured in USDT per LINK, with daily bars beginning at 00:00 UTC. The saved response contains 60 daily bars through 14 April 2023, rather than a perpetual or LINK/EUR series. Tables show selected bars, not a continuous time series. P0–P5 are explicitly retrospective test references, not program detections or signals available at the time. Save the full window and smaller intervals before attempting a complete count.
Rheinmetall: price checks pass while completion remains open
The falling candidate uses 1665.50 → 1509.00 → 1656.00 → 1427.00 → 1500.00 → 1365.00 EUR. Proposed waves 1, 3 and 5 measure 156.50, 229.00 and 135.00. The second-wave high 1656.00 remains below the origin 1665.50. Wave 3 moves below 1509.00 and is not shortest; wave 4 at 1500.00 remains below the end of wave 1 at 1509.00, outside its price territory.
The second retracement is 147/156.5 = 93.93%; the fourth is 73/229 = 31.88%. These measure this candidate rather than mandatory Fibonacci targets. Price checks alone do not establish the required internal structures. The 30 March low of 1336.50 already falls below P5? = 1365.00. A final-completion claim for 27 March therefore needs a new review. P5 remains testable, and a later relabelling must preserve the original cutoff record. Whether 27 March nevertheless ended a smaller completed structure needs separate subdivision evidence; the new low alone does not settle that question.
| Date | O | H | L | C | Selected reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 1616.50 | 1665.50 | 1596.00 | 1653.00 | P0: H |
| 2026-03-11 | 1620.00 | 1622.50 | 1509.00 | 1520.50 | P1: L |
| 2026-03-18 | 1636.00 | 1656.00 | 1602.50 | 1605.50 | P2: H |
| 2026-03-23 | 1461.50 | 1528.00 | 1427.00 | 1483.00 | P3: L |
| 2026-03-25 | 1493.50 | 1500.00 | 1475.50 | 1486.50 | P4: H |
| 2026-03-27 | 1425.00 | 1436.00 | 1365.00 | 1379.50 | P5?: L |
| 2026-03-30 | 1345.00 | 1420.00 | 1336.50 | 1409.50 | L < P5? |
SAP: three price reasons to reject an ordinary upward impulse
The selected sequence is 178.88 → 190.26 → 183.92 → 190.22 → 183.76 → 192.58 EUR. Treat it as a hypothesis to test. The proposed third endpoint 190.22 does not exceed the first high 190.26. The low assigned to wave 4, 183.76, lies inside wave 1 territory of 178.88–190.26. Those two observations already conflict with an ordinary upward impulse.
In addition, movements 1, 3 and 5 measure 11.38, 6.30 and 8.82: the third would be shortest. The later higher price of 192.58 does not repair these failures. Rejecting this particular impulse does not confirm a diagonal or ABC correction. Another interpretation needs its own boundaries, internal subdivisions and larger context checked against the same source data.
| Date | O | H | L | C | Selected reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 185.20 | 186.76 | 178.88 | 184.02 | P0: L |
| 2026-10-01 | 184.68 | 190.26 | 181.34 | 186.74 | P1: H |
| 2026-10-02 | 187.82 | 188.74 | 183.92 | 183.92 | P2: L |
| 2026-10-06 | 186.56 | 190.22 | 186.06 | 188.60 | P3?: H |
| 2026-10-08 | 187.04 | 189.82 | 183.76 | 184.62 | P4?: L |
| 2026-10-09 | 188.98 | 192.58 | 188.86 | 191.46 | P5?: H |
Novo Nordisk: separate the gap from the retracement
The gap from the 3 February close of 367.80 to the 4 February 2026 open of 302.00 is −65.80 DKK, or −17.89%. Do not connect them with invented transactions inside the unobserved interval. The 4 February daily bar also does not reveal the order of its high at 314.50 and low at 296.00.
The fall from the 3 February high of 376.55 to the 5 February low of 272.90 measures 103.65 DKK. The 9 February high of 321.95 recovers 49.05, or 47.32%. That is neither exactly 50% nor proof of wave 2 or B: both remain hypotheses without subdivisions and larger position. Here 376.55 is the origin boundary of a proposed falling first wave; a move below 272.90 alone would still not prove wave 3. Substituting a EUR or USD series changes this DKK test.
| Date | O | H | L | C | Selected reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | 374.00 | 376.55 | 367.05 | 367.80 | H0 |
| 2026-02-04 | 302.00 | 314.50 | 296.00 | 304.65 | O: gap |
| 2026-02-05 | 302.25 | 303.60 | 272.90 | 280.65 | L1 |
| 2026-02-06 | 282.15 | 297.00 | 281.65 | 295.50 | — |
| 2026-02-09 | 317.05 | 321.95 | 309.35 | 311.00 | H2 |
Chainlink: a new high does not repair overlap
The selected Bybit Spot extremes from 10 March to 14 April 2023 are 5.8910 → 7.1986 → 6.3871 → 7.7151 → 6.7456 → 7.9063 USDT. Some outer checks for an ordinary upward impulse pass: point 2 stays above the origin, point 3 exceeds 7.1986, and the third movement at 1.3280 is not shortest against 1.3076 and 1.1607.
The decisive contradiction is P4? = 6.7456 inside wave 1 territory of 5.8910–7.1986. The pullback from 7.7151 measures 0.9695/1.3280 = 73.00% of the third movement. A frequently quoted retracement zone or the later high of 7.9063 does not override the overlap rule. Reject this ordinary impulse candidate. A diagonal requires its own position and subdivision checks. Another venue or derivative contract would require a new source-data comparison.
| Date | O | H | L | C | Selected reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-10 | 6.1593 | 6.2616 | 5.891 | 6.2132 | P0: L |
| 2023-03-14 | 6.7629 | 7.1986 | 6.6075 | 6.9668 | P1: H |
| 2023-03-15 | 6.9668 | 7.107 | 6.3871 | 6.548 | P2: L |
| 2023-03-22 | 7.3698 | 7.7151 | 7.0034 | 7.1701 | P3: H |
| 2023-03-27 | 7.2591 | 7.2724 | 6.7456 | 6.8713 | P4?: L |
| 2023-04-14 | 7.466 | 7.9063 | 7.4606 | 7.7471 | P5?: H |
P4 enters wave 1 territory, but P5 makes a new high. Does the ordinary upward impulse pass?
No. A new high does not remove overlap. The chosen impulse is rejected; another pattern requires separate evidence.